Showing posts with label Options Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Options Commentary. Show all posts

Sunday, March 18, 2012

News and Expert Analysis from optionMonster

Click Here and Master Options! Condor Options Analysis and Commentary Blog

What put surge means for materials fund

The SPDR Materials Fund has been pushing back toward the resistance levels from the last six weeks, but put buying tops its option activity today.

Group One's Jamie Tyrrell is seeing heavy activity in the VIX 17 puts, indicating that traders don't see the volatility index falling much below that level even though the market is up again today.

The construction company has been surging after it touched a 2-1/2 year low last year and following a strong earnings release in December.

The gold miner's stock has been falling sharply for more than a month, but today one trader is looking for a floor beneath the shares.

Nearing the halfway mark in today's session, here are the individual equity names with the most call and put buying on optionMONSTER's ActionTracker data system.

Total option volume remains strong with 6.8 million contracts already traded today, and calls are again strong in the indexes and ETFs, optionMONSTER's data systems show.

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund collapsed to support this week, and today's option activity is dominated by a large put trade.

The electronics retailer is holding yesterday's impressive gains but remains in the range that has been in place for all of this year.

Yesterday may have been the day that retail showed its true colors, when we discovered that $4 gasoline does matter.

The Chinese videogame developer beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines; Frontline climbs on bullish commentary; Cogo more than doubles on CEO plans.

European markets are gaining for the fifth day in a row as worries over the Greek debt situtation subside. Asian indexes close mixed.

The highly leveraged and heavily shorted commercial real-estate lender has been trading sideways since late January, when it reported better-than-expected earnings as bad loans declined.

Some chart watchers may see evidence that the Canadian miner remains in a bullish trend, and they could be looking for its next move to be higher.

The SPDR Consumer Discretionary Fund drew a large put ratio spread yesterday even as the ETF hit new all-time highs.

The pharmaceutical company missed forecasts in its last earnings report but continues to enjoy rapid growth for its Xiaflex treatment of a rare hand disease.

One investor has seen premiums double but, instead of taking profits, is raising the stakes even higher to reap more gains on the financial name.

Chris McKhann analyzes a large put backspread in the pharmacy-services company, which appears to be an example of serious tail-risk hedging.

Today's economic calendar will focus on the inflation data, consumer sentiment, and industrial production.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged at yesterday's close to finish the day up 0.72 percent at 15.42, taking a chunk out of the premium in the VIX futures.

The SPX reclaimed the elusive 1400 level with conviction, finishing yesterday at 1402.60. The Russell 2000 recouped Wednesday's losses, and the Nasdaq 100 gained even though Apple fell.

Options News and Commentary from Forbes


Options News and Commentary

Today’s tickers: LULU, ELN & POT
Bank takes heat from ex-employee; iPad 3 goes on sale Friday.
As is noted here, IRS Still Fighting Conservation Tax Breaks, the IRS doesn’t much like conservation easements. A conservation easement is a legal right to enforce the preservation of the land. Isn’t that a good thing?
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are pointing toward a flat open this morning, as Wall Street digests yesterday's surge to fresh multi-year highs. Not only did the Dow eclipse 13,000, but the Nasdaq Composite finished north of 3,000 for the first time in 11 years. Heading into the open, futures on the DJIA are hovering about 3 points above fair value, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are virtually flat with fair value.
Stress test results due Thursday.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are indicating a potential gain of about 70 points on the open this morning, as Wall Street digests February retail sales data ahead of a monetary policy decision from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).  Sales rose 1.1% to a five-month high in February, according to the Commerce Department, while January sales were revised higher to a gain of 0.6%.  Excluding autos, February sales rose 0.9%.


Youku gets together with Tudou and the group comes alive.
Private banks are struggling to come up with reasons why the wealthy should flock to them for money management services. Their fee-laden proprietary investment products never have been competitive, generally underperforming by a few percentage points in bull markets. These tony institutions nevertheless maintained reputations far beyond their capabilities for decades by stroking client egos in their hallowed marble hallways.  When private bank investment funds plummeted further than the market in 2008, clients were finally shaken out of their complacency. The private banking industry is reeling today; weaker institutions are being shuttered and even the largest firms are downsizing. If you enjoy quiet and solitude, take a walk down Royal Palm Way in Palm Beach – where most of the private bankers have (or had) their offices. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is headed toward a weak start this Monday morning, as Wall Street digests weak Chinese economic data released over the weekend. Additionally, Greece will be back in the headlines again today, as a Euro-zone meeting is slated for later this morning to work on finalizing the country's debt swap and bailout funds.
Many Americans have voiced contempt for FATCA---the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act.  So have international and foreign banking institutions.  See FATCA Carries Fat Price Tag. More vocal than any other group are American Expats Calling For FATCA Repeal.
Billionaire Warren Stephens explains how his firm keeps an even keel.
We Americans do like to tinker with our tax laws. Last year, I reported on a bill t0 provide tax breaks for facial hair aptly named the STACHE Act: the Stimulus To Allow Critical Hair Expenses. See Would Mustache Tax Be Better Than 9-9-9? Professor John Yeutter and the American Mustache Institute proposed it, and this story won't die.
New single-serve machine could spell trouble for the K-Cup.
No one wants to be noticed by the IRS, much less audited. While it might be nice to have your peers or former high school classmates look upon you as someone who made it big time, do you want the IRS to think you're a big shot? Look what happened to Leona Helmsley after she uttered her now immortal words: “Only the little people pay taxes.”
Economists expect U.S. payrolls added 220,000 jobs in February.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) could be headed toward a 100-point gain on the open this morning, as Wall Street cheers developments in the Greek sovereign-debt debacle. Specifically, reports surfaced late yesterday that private investors holding around 60% of Greece's swappable bonds have indicated they will take part in the current restructuring efforts. Official results of the swap will be released Friday morning. Futures are rallying on the news, with S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Mini futures trading 12 points and 18 points above fair value, respectively.
Will the IRS pay for your hobby? Not usually. But sometimes yes if you can make it enough of a real business. Kurt Strode should have known this. See Strode v. Commissioner. A California attorney, Stode had salary income and tried to offset it by deducting $75,000 a year of expenses from his "international consulting" side business. One problem: In six years, he hadn’t made a nickel in international consulting.
Microsoft and Chevron are examples of cheap stocks.
Wall Street is set to reclaim some of Tuesday's losses this morning, as stock futures are trading sharply higher following strong employment data from ADP. Specifically, private-sector payrolls rose by 216,000 in February, while January's gain was revised higher to 173,000 from 170,000. The ADP report is seen as a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, where economists are expecting to see February employment rise by 213,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is seen holding firm at 8.3%.
Stocks stumbling as debt swap comes down to the wire.
Selling pressure is heavy on Wall Street this morning, with futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) pointing toward an opening gap lower of nearly 100 points. Global economic growth concerns are plaguing investors this week, after a series of weak economic reports and China lowering its growth forecast on Monday. The Street is also eyeing an important Greek bond swap, the outcome of which could have global ramifications. Against this backdrop, futures on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Mini are trading 10 points and 20 points below fair value.
The news release that BP reached a $7.8 billion settlement over its Deepwater Horizon oil spill could mean cash for many victims soon. It’s good news for BP too, although BP must still deal with probable government fines. See BP Spill Saga Far From Over. BP can deduct compensation paid to victims but may have a hard time deducting government fines.
Here at the Small Business Authority, we are experts in all areas relating to small business. We have been in business for over thirteen years, servicing over 100,000 business accounts in all 50 states. The Small Business Authority brand has been established to provide real-time, state of the art content, and business services to become the destination for small-business owners all across the United States.
Warnings of slower growth in China are providing a bit of fuel for Wall Street bears this morning, sending futures lower heading into the open. Specifically, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao lowered the country's growth forecast from 8% to 7.5% for the year. As a result, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are indicating an opening loss of about 15 points. Furthermore, S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are trading about 2.5 points below fair value, while Nasdaq Mini futures are 1.5 points below fair value.
A "bargain sale" usually means a tax deduction. You sell on the cheap to a charity, and what you don't get in sales price you get in a charitable contribution deduction. That's the theory, and often it works just fine, subject to the inevitable technical details.
It’s been said that crime does not pay and that cheaters never prosper.  Neither of these statements is true and you should not be dissuaded from a life of theft by such homilies. History is replete with examples of people who have done very well for themselves by stealing from others. Vast personal fortunes have been amassed using illegal, ahem, business practices. Call them “robber barons” or aggressive capitalists, many were criminals. Furthermore, since financial crimes involving the greatest sums of money are rarely reported (for reasons we’ll get to later) crime pays far better than historical accounts would suggest.
Taxes are complicated, but some rules are simple. Respect these three rules, and you'll reduce the chance of coming to grief with the IRS.

Options Updates, Commentary and Tips from Option Alpha

Option Alpha - News, Commentary and Education

Updates, Commentary and Tips

The daily driver is the most robust of the investment vehicles. Typically this vehicle is extremely boring and not an attractive choice to most novice traders. Even though this vehicle is not the most exciting or fun way of investing, it is the type of vehicle that will create the passive income. Passive meaning it ...

Today we are opening the new position as follows: Trade: Sell DIA April 115 Puts Premium: $15 (0.15) Credit or better per contract Underlying Price: $132.41 Max Return: 1.30% Break-Even Price: $114.85 Time Until Expiration: 34 Days Probability of Loss: 4.00% Trade Explanation: For the Naked portfolio we are entering our 2nd trade for the April portfolio. A little more conservative but ...

This isn’t a trick or secret tip by any means – but maybe you just haven’t though about commissions like this before. You see, all of us have done the searching online for the “best” commissions. I know I still look around now and then to make sure I’m getting the best deal I can ...


Options trading involves opening and closing positions all the time right. And since the markets can turn on a dime, there are many times when exiting a position quickly becomes necessary. But before you can even be comfortable getting in and out of orders you have to know what tools you have at your disposal. ...

Today we are opening the new position as follows: Trade: Sell IWM April 64 Puts Premium: $20 (0.20) Credit or better per contract Underlying Price: $80.34 Max Return: 3.12% Break-Even Price: $63.80 Time Until Expiration: 45 Days Probability of Loss: 5.45% Trade Explanation: For the Naked portfolio we are entering our 1st trade for the April portfolio. If you didn’t catch the video ...

If you truly want to make more money trading options then you need to start thinking now about the options you trade now. Liquidity should be combined with other metrics as you perform your market research but some traders overlook its advantages. In this post I wanted to share some of reasons why an option liquidity ...

You’ve decided that you want to really do all this trading stuff. Now you have to set up your stock charts so that it’s easy and simple to analyze the markets. A little time up front correctly setting up your charts now will save you time and money down the road. The key is to ...

Today we are opening the new position as follows: Trade: Sell RUT April 910 CALL AND Buy RUT April 920 CALL Premium: $60 (0.60) Net Credit or better per contract Underlying Price: $826 Max Return: 6.38% Break-Even Price: $910.60 Time Until Expiration: 57 Days Probability of Loss: 6.86% Trade Explanation: For the Credit Spread portfolio we are adding our 1st trade for ...

Placing your first option trade is not as hard as it may seem. You’ll never learn until you do it so let’s walk through placing your first trade step by step right now. At the end of this quick tutorial, add your comments and let me know if you think this was helpful in getting ...

Many traders lose simply out of ignorance – as bad as this sounds it’s completely true. Honestly I throw myself into this category as well somethings when I see something I know I should trade on and I don’t. You see most investors base their trades on hunches, news, or tips from friends which we ...

Options Analysis and Commentary from CondorOptions

Have You Tried Binary Options Yet? Condor Options Analysis and Commentary Blog


BofA interest rate strategists Ralph Axel and Ruslan Bikbov suggest that now would be a good time to buy tail risk hedges. (hat tip Joe Weisenthal) 6-month options on 10-year swap futures are as inexpensive now, they claim, as they’ve been in decades, excluding one period in 2006.

6M IV on 10Y Swap Futures, bp. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
So far, so good. If rates are your key concern, this looks like a decent time to…

Implied volatility (IV) skew is one of the most important and interesting aspects of listed options. IV skew typically refers to the differences in the implied volatilities of options in the same expiration cycle with different strike prices. There have been many attempts in the academic literature to model the behavior of changes in skew, but the interpretation of skew information by traders is still done largely on a qualitative and ad hoc basis.
In “Quantifiable Implied Volatility Skew,”

Based on my understanding of the Fed stress test results, here’s an argument for why you should buy shares of Citigroup.
  1. Ceteris paribus, you should buy (short) shares of any bank that will have (will not have) adequate Tier 1 capital under the Fed’s stress scenario.
  2. If Citi revises its proposed capital actions after Q1 2012, it will have adequate Tier 1 capital under the Fed’s stress scenario.
  3. Citi is revising its proposed capital actions after Q1 2012.
  4. Therefore,


The halt in TVIX share issuance and the fact that, on some days, VIX-based ETF/ETN rebalancing accounts for 90% of VIX futures volume has caused some pretty wild speculation. I’ve been too busy this week to write a proper rebuttal, but here are some points that will help you steer clear of all the needless hand-wringing:
  • The rolling of contracts in VXX and similar products is in no way “entirely game-able,” for the same reason that the term


VelocityShares Daily 2X VIX Short-term ETN (TVIX), an increasingly popular volatility product, is an exchange traded note (ETN) provided by Credit Suisse that seeks to provide two times the daily return of the S&P Short Term VIX Futures Index (SPVXSTR), the same index tracked by the popular iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX). SPVXSTR maintains positions in first and second month VIX futures in a ratio weighted to provide constant exposure at a one-month horizon.
TVIX

The jargon of options trading sometimes turns people off, and maybe “volatility skew” is one of the biggest hurdles. So I’m going to explain the concept in a straightforward way, and then explain why volatility skew is something you should care very much about.
Volatility skew usually refers to the difference between the implied volatilities of options at different strike prices in the same expiration cycle. For the majority of stocks and indexes, options with high strike prices have low…

The Condor Options newsletter portfolio returned 28% in the final quarter of this 2011, compared with 10% for the S&P 500. For the full year, the iron condor strategy beat the index by 4.39 percentage points, returning 2.59% compared with -1.80% for the index.
In the last quarter of the year, we made a major change to the strategy, expanding the scope of option selling trades to include a full suite of underlyings with exposure to U.S. and international stocks,…

Here’s one for all you volatility traders. You have to take a position in some combination of the following contracts (and only the following contracts), and hold it for all of 2012. The position will be closed out on the last day of December.
What’s your take? For this hypothetical, we’re limited to only those…

Humans can’t not tell stories: that’s the result of decades of research in cognitive science, psychology, neuroscience, and philosophy into our tendency to string together disparate events into coherent narratives. If you’re philosophically inclined, you know that David Hume got it right centuries ago: when we identify causation, what we are really doing is composing fictions to help us make sense of the buzzing world around us. But it would be a mistake to confuse our convenient fictions with the…

Historically, two of the most successful approaches to trading have been trend following and option selling. Trend following and momentum investing are strategies known to just about everybody, and option selling (i.e. collecting the volatility risk premium), while not quite as famous, is hardly a closely-held secret.
Usually, these two approaches are treated as strangers. Momentum/trend traders are conceptually long volatility in that they are willing to accept small, frequent losses from choppy markets in order to reap gains…