The Central Bank Put Option

Jim Grant: ‘gold price is the reciprocal of faith in central banks’

2012-APR-02

Up, down, and back up again: that about sums up the action in the gold and silver markets last week, though neither bulls nor bears were strong enough to move the gold price out of its trading range between $1,650-$1,680. Likewise, the silver price continues to trade in a range from $31-$33.
The indecisiveness in the metals is mirroring broader market ambiguities. German unemployment is now at a record post-reunification low, yet it’s been reported this morning that total eurozone unemployment stands at a 25-year high of 10.8%. In Italy, unemployment rose from 9.1% to 9.3% January to February – its highest level since 2004. The division between the German “core” and the Med countries (plus Ireland) grows ever wider.
New Chinese manufacturing data had cheered investors earlier today (production up for the fourth straight month) but that was before the eurozone unemployment data was released. European exchanges are down slightly and crude oil prices have taken a hit – though both WTI and Brent remain above the lows they reached last Thursday.
As for America, Barry Ritholtz posts good comment on Wall Street’s love of easy money, noting the combination of “extraordinary skills and stupendous luck” that it will take to return monetary policy “to some semblance of normalcy”. The humorous and informative James Grant remains just as sceptical, noting in the CNBC video below that “gold has more upside” because of these difficulties. Click on this link to watch James Grant discuss gold, the Fed and the US economy with James Turk.

Tags: central banks, China, euro crisis, gold price

Author: The GoldMoney News Desk

Bernanke speaks, gold price rises.

Bernanke lifts gold price again

2012-MAR-27

Precious metal bulls have got used to being “saved” by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in recent years. Frequent spurts higher in the gold price often coincide with Bernanke press conferences, in which the chairman vows to maintain easy money policy at the Federal Reserve. Yesterday was a classic case of this, with gold gaining around $20 in a matter of minutes just after 12GMT following Bernanke’s comments that more progress on unemployment will require "more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies."

As Trader Dan Norcini comments, pity the poor Fed Funds Futures traders. No sooner do we have glimmers that rates are going to rise as the US economy picks up pace and inflation rises, than do we have the Fed Chairman himself come out and quash these rumours. Dan correctly notes that Bernanke is terrified of rising rates. The US is in a debt trap from which there is no escape without considerable economic pain.

Little wonder then, that some analysts view our current epoch as “the most favourable era for gold prices in our lifetime”; BMO Financial Group’s Don Coxe adding that “governments are running deficits "beyond the forecasts of all but the hardiest goldbugs five years ago; central banks are printing money and creating liquidity beyond the forecasts of all but the most paranoid goldbugs a year ago."

Unsurprisingly, the dollar sold off yesterday, with the USDX now below 79.00. 80.00 is looking more and more like a “hard top” as far as this index is concerned, Gregor Macdonald and others noting that capping any rise in the dollar is an important aspect of current US government policy – though one that is seldom discussed in much detail by mainstream media.

A result of this official determination to weaken the dollar is of course, more people looking to buy precious metals.

Tags: Ben Bernanke, buy gold, dollar, Fed, gold price

Author: The GoldMoney News Desk

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Deflation or Inflation? The Debate Continues

What All Major Depressions Have in Common
Signs of deflation are visible but the public will be fooled 
March 23, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

Deflation requires a precondition: a major societal buildup in the extension of credit (and its flip side, the assumption of debt).
-- Conquer the Crash, 2nd edition (p. 88)

Has the United States met that precondition?

Well, consider that total credit market debt as a percent of U.S. gross domestic product was

• 280 percent in 1929 at the start of the Great Depression
• 380 percent in 2008

The current build-up of credit goes far beyond major -- it's unprecedented.

It's been rising steadily for 60 years. The slope literally looks like the side of a steep mountain.

Bank credit and Elliott wave expert Hamilton Bolton studied every major depression in the U.S. In 1957, he made this observation:

All were set off by a deflation of excess credit. This was the one factor in common...the signs were visible many months, and in some cases years, in advance. None was ever quite like the last, so that the public was always fooled thereby.

Let's read again from the second edition of Conquer the Crash (p.92):

A deflationary crash is characterized in part by a persistent, sustained, deep, general decline in people's desire and ability to lend and borrow...

The U.S. has experienced two major deflationary depressions, which lasted from 1835 to 1842 and from 1929 to 1932 respectively. Each one followed a period of substantial credit expansion. Credit expansion schemes have always ended in bust. The credit expansion scheme fostered by worldwide central banking...is the greatest ever...If my outlook is correct, the deflationary crash that lies ahead will be even bigger than the two largest such episodes of the past 200 years.

Is there evidence now that a deflationary trend is underway? Dear reader, the evidence is abundant and growing by the day.

To begin with, just a casual observation of our national economic life reveals a deep general decline in people's desire and ability to lend and borrow.

But there are many specific signs pointing to bankruptcy, default and a deflationary spiral.

Yet they're not grabbing the headlines. The "good" economic reports and levitating stock market are. The public will likely be fooled again. But make no mistake, the signs are there.

---

Learn Why Deflation Is the Biggest Threat to Your Money Right Now Discover Robert Prechter's views on the unfolding deflationary trend by reading the 90-page report, The Guide to Understanding Deflation. This guide will help you survive a major deflationary trend, and even equip you to prosper. Plan and prepare for your financial future. Download Your Free 90-Page Deflation Survival Guide eBook.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What All Major Depressions Have in Common. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Are the Efforts of the World Central Banks Working?

Are the Efforts of the World Central Banks Working?

March 19, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

The Fed is not the world's only central bank dealing with debt. Watch as Steve Hochberg, EWI's chief market analyst, shows what has happened to GDP in countries around the world as other central banks try to "inject liquidity" into the system.