Economic Implosion? And What If?

How to Handle an Economic Implosion

April 18, 2012

By Elliott Wave International

I came across some research on the subject of worry. Here's how it was presented:

Things People Worry About:

• things that never happen - 40%
• things which did happen that worrying can't undo - 30%
• needless health worries - 12%
• petty, miscellaneous worries - 10%
• real, legitimate worries - 8%

Of the legitimate worries, half are problems beyond our personal ability to solve. That leaves 4% in the realm of worries peoplecan do something about.

I thought about our gigantic national debt and weak economy. These seem to fit into both subcategories of "real" worries. Youcan't do much as an individual to solve the nation's debt and economic problems, yet you can prepare for a worsening economic downtrend.

Do we see evidence for an economic turn for the worse?

Well, consider that the evidence is so overwhelming that it took 456 pages of the second edition of Robert Prechter's book,Conquer the Crash, to cover it. And since that book published, Prechter has consistently devoted his monthly Elliott Wave Theorist to the facts and evidence behind his forecast.

Here's a chart from the book that was updated by Elliott Wave International in March 2012:

The downturn from 2008 is critically important, as it shows that after an almost unbroken 60-year climb, the contraction is underway. It surely has much further to go, because it is still a third higher than it was at the outset of the last debt deflation in 1929.
-- The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, March 2012

The rating agencies are well aware of what the above chart means. You probably know that Standard & Poor's downgraded U.S. debt from the nation's long-standing triple-A to AA+. Now, another rating agency has taken their rating even lower:

Rating firm Egan-Jones cuts its credit rating on the U.S. government to "AA" from "AA+" with a negative watch, citing a lack of progress in cutting the mounting federal debt.
-- CNBC.com, April 5

Robert Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, provides practical information about what you can do to protect your finances in the coming economic implosion. And right now, Elliott Wave International is offering 8 lessons from Conquer the Crash in a free 42-page report that covers:

• What to do with your pension plan
• How to identify a safe haven
• What you should do if you run a business
• A Short List of Imperative "Dos" and Don'ts"
• And more

In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Discover the ways you can be financially prepared and safe.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How to Handle an Economic Implosion. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Trading In Digital Options

Digital Options Trading Introduction

Digital options, frequently referred to as "binary options" or "fixed return options" are similar to traditional options in many ways but also differ in some very significant ways. Digital options are quite simple trading instruments requiring no exceptional knowledge of or experience with trading or financial markets. Of course, superior knowledge of markets and trading does often lead to superior results but it is certainly not a prerequisite to being a profitable digital options trader. In this short article we will examine digital options, explain what they are, and explore how they are traded.

Digital Options Trading Highlights

• Digital Options Are Market Neutral Instruments
• Quick And Easy To Trade
• Strictly Limited Risk
• Small Initial Investment Required
• Digital Options Have No Commissions, Fees, Or Other Hidden Costs
• High, Fixed Potential Returns Known Beforehand
• Requires Only A Small Move In The Underlying
• Digital Options Can Be Traded At Any Time Of Day Or Night
• Trade On Stocks, Indices, Currencies, Commodities And More

Some Digital Options Trading Disadvantages

• Potential Returns On Winning Trades Will Always Be Less Then Potential Losses On Losing Trades (You'll need roughly a 55% win rate for profitability)
• Many Digital Options Brokers Offer Trades Which Amount To Little More Than A Roulette Spin - 60 Second Options To Name One. (We're fans of digital options here but we recommend our readers stay clear of these types of trades.)
• No Claim To An Underlying Asset (a possible disadvantage for some but for the majority not even an issue.)
• Some Regulatory Conflicts For US Based Traders (Our Uncle Sam can certainly be a nosy, interfering chap sometimes...)

Digital options trading can be a great choice for some investors or speculators but as with anything in life it too has both its drawbacks and strengths and isn't right for everyone. I currently trade digital options with traderush and so far I have no complaints and I really like their platform. My first withdrawal was just a tad slow but my withdrawals since that first one have all been prompt. My account manager is great as well and is always helpful.

Tens of Billions at Significant Risk

Public Pension Funds: Tens of Billions at Significant Risk Is now the time to gamble with retirement?  April 04, 2012 By Elliott Wave International To meet ambitious investment return targets, some public pension funds must now swing for the fences. But many are down two strikes already, due to their previous big bets with hedge funds. ....the [pension] funds with a third to more than half of their money in private equity, hedge funds and real estate had returns that were more than a percentage point lower than returns of the funds that largely avoided those assets. They also paid nearly four times as much in fees. New York Times, April 1 The same article describes how other pension funds have embraced this risky strategy, and how funds generally have their assets at risk. In 2007 pension funds allocated 10.7 percent to "high-growth" investments; by September 2011 they had increased that bet to 19 percent. All the while, hedge funds have underperformed, as this chart from our January 2012 Financial Forecast shows: The [HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index] hit a new low on December 14, producing a rash of articles about how hedge funds got tripped up in 2011. "Many hedge-fund managers who came into 2011 riding a wave of momentum ended the year scratching their heads and nursing losses, whipsawed by markets that seemed to punish them month after month." "Head scratching" is just right for this still-early stage of the bear. Through the first ten months of 2011, 123 Asian hedge funds shut their doors, the second highest number of closures since 2008, the year world markets collapsed. Financial Forecast, January 20 The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) is the nation's largest public pension fund. It recently lowered its investment return target from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent. The system's actuary had recommended lowering it to 7.25 percent.> The CalPERS board members were told by their staff that they had only a 50 percent chance of hitting or surpassing the 7.5 percent target, yet they adopted that assumption. Others say the odds are even worse than that. If CalPERS loses the bet, as it is likely to, the next generation will pay the shortfall... ....if CalPERS or any other public-pension system banks on higher-investment returns, it must take greater risks to meet the target...Cal-PERS chief investment officer told Pensions and Investments newspaper last year, his system has "a reasonably ambitious return target" and "needs to have a portfolio with a lot of growth exposure." San Jose Mercury News, March 24 Is now the time to take greater risks? You saw the 2011 performance of hedge funds, and that was a year when the DJIA was up. Imagine the scenario if the market takes a serious tumble. As an independent thinker, you have a way to prepare for your retirement: An unbiased, objective analysis of the facts and the future. That's exactly what you get when you download the free 50-pageIndependent Investor eBook. It's filled with analysis that will help you prepare for your financial future. You'll get some of the most groundbreaking and eye-opening reports ever published in Elliott Wave International's 30-year history; you'll also get new analysis, forecasts and commentary to help you think independently in today's tumultuous market. Download Your Free 50-Page Independent Investor eBook Now This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Public Pension Funds: Tens of Billions at Significant Risk . EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the  world.