Markets have fought valiantly higher today to approach Monday's closing level as of this writing. Supposedly on "Greek deal hopes."
Market Madness would need to see a close above Monday's level before concluding the pullback is over, however. That we are seeing this rebound on a day when unemployment claims are up, and the Greece situation is unchanged (media chaeerleading aside) does suggest that this is indeed a simple pullback.
See you for our Daily Market Madness Recap!
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Market Madness Daily Market Update - 3/7/12
Indices today managed to recover a sizable portion of their losses of the last couple days on a positive ADP jobs report that beat consensus by a small margin. Enough to cheer buyers anyway.
The S&P 500 came up off its trend line right from the starting bell, and never looked back this morning, finishing strongly with over 9 points of gain (+0.69%). If buyers can dominate the action tomorrow it will seem increasingly likely that this pullback was just that, a healthy pause before continuation of the run. Color us skeptical, however.
Relative strength was also with the small caps and high beta tech issues today which is another possible positive indicator for rally continuation. The RUT outperformed today with a gain of over 1%, at 8.86 points, eating up a good deal of yesterday's fall and bringing it back above the important 50 DMA. However, there is still a lot of work to be done on this index before we get positive on it again.
The one index we were relatively bullish on, the semiconductors, performed admirably today with a gain of +1.55% after its mid-day bounce off the 400 support level. We still think this index could run faster and further than others if the bullish euphoria were to resume.
In summary we think the likelihood that this selling was simply a healthy correction in an ongoing bull market increased significantly today and will be watching very closely for signs of follow through in the morning.
Good Luck!
_________________________________________________________________________________
Please feel free to poke around in our Market Madness Metals section (and others which, if started at all, are much less complete) and send or leave us your suggestions or comments!
The S&P 500 came up off its trend line right from the starting bell, and never looked back this morning, finishing strongly with over 9 points of gain (+0.69%). If buyers can dominate the action tomorrow it will seem increasingly likely that this pullback was just that, a healthy pause before continuation of the run. Color us skeptical, however.
Relative strength was also with the small caps and high beta tech issues today which is another possible positive indicator for rally continuation. The RUT outperformed today with a gain of over 1%, at 8.86 points, eating up a good deal of yesterday's fall and bringing it back above the important 50 DMA. However, there is still a lot of work to be done on this index before we get positive on it again.
The one index we were relatively bullish on, the semiconductors, performed admirably today with a gain of +1.55% after its mid-day bounce off the 400 support level. We still think this index could run faster and further than others if the bullish euphoria were to resume.
In summary we think the likelihood that this selling was simply a healthy correction in an ongoing bull market increased significantly today and will be watching very closely for signs of follow through in the morning.
Good Luck!
_________________________________________________________________________________
Please feel free to poke around in our Market Madness Metals section (and others which, if started at all, are much less complete) and send or leave us your suggestions or comments!
Market Madness Daily Market Update - 3/6/12
Presented late and with little comment tonight.
We finally had the expected pullback, with indices losing about 1.5% across the board. We had encouraged our readers to be defensive over the last few days, and possibly consider going long volatility. That view proved a winner today but many of the majors now sit right at support so we shall see what tomorrow brings. As you can see below the SPX found support at its multi-month trend line and this will be an important level to watch tomorrow.
Our ugly duckling of the year, the small cap RUT index, resumed its pattern of underperformance today, Losing just over 2% to the 1.5% of the SPX. Adding to the ugliness today was a clean break under the 50 DMA. This one has some room to run before encountering next significant technical support and remains the ugliest of the bunch.
We also mentioned on Friday to look for the 400 level to act as support in the semiconductor index and that is indeed what we saw today. Whether it stays above that level or not is another story and one we will have to watch unfold.
Last, but most certainly not least we have the VIX below. Market Madness has been mentioning frequently (here, here, here)our view that the VIX has been forming a bottom over the last few weeks. Today saw a near 16% jump and one mean gap up. Our view is that volatility could further run up into the mid 20's fairly easy on a bad piece of news right now and we like a long position in TVIX (the 2x VIX short-term ETN).
See you next time and stay safe out there!
We finally had the expected pullback, with indices losing about 1.5% across the board. We had encouraged our readers to be defensive over the last few days, and possibly consider going long volatility. That view proved a winner today but many of the majors now sit right at support so we shall see what tomorrow brings. As you can see below the SPX found support at its multi-month trend line and this will be an important level to watch tomorrow.
Our ugly duckling of the year, the small cap RUT index, resumed its pattern of underperformance today, Losing just over 2% to the 1.5% of the SPX. Adding to the ugliness today was a clean break under the 50 DMA. This one has some room to run before encountering next significant technical support and remains the ugliest of the bunch.
We also mentioned on Friday to look for the 400 level to act as support in the semiconductor index and that is indeed what we saw today. Whether it stays above that level or not is another story and one we will have to watch unfold.
Last, but most certainly not least we have the VIX below. Market Madness has been mentioning frequently (here, here, here)our view that the VIX has been forming a bottom over the last few weeks. Today saw a near 16% jump and one mean gap up. Our view is that volatility could further run up into the mid 20's fairly easy on a bad piece of news right now and we like a long position in TVIX (the 2x VIX short-term ETN).
See you next time and stay safe out there!
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